Don’t Fall for the Tyranny of the Obvious
There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.
Sherlock Holmes in The Boscombe Valley Mystery
I’ve got a math problem for you. Don’t worry, it’s easy.
If it takes 5 robots 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would it take 100 robots to make 100 widgets?
Our brains have two modes of thinking: System 1 and System 2.
System 1 is quick and effortless. System 2 is slower and requires effort.
In many cases, System 1 is exactly what we need. It detects threats and allows us to make fast decisions.
If we had only System 2, we would have difficulty making even simple decisions. Our brains would be overloaded by midmorning every day.
Filmmakers exploit System 1 to scare us while we are sitting comfortably and safely in a movie theater where the only danger is overly aggressive air conditioning.
So, how long will it take our 100 robots to crank out 100 widgets?
If you said 100 minutes, System 1 led you astray.
This kind of math problem requires some careful System 2 thinking.
The obvious answer isn’t always the correct answer.
This presents a difficulty.
Once System 1 points out the obvious answer, System 2 remains at rest, and we stop looking for answers.
The difficulty is that System 1 doesn’t always notice all the details.
If it notices a familiar pattern, it locks in the obvious answer.
System 1 judges books by their covers and people by their appearance.
And we need it to do that.
System 1 warns us that there is something off about that hitchhiker with a double-bit ax over his shoulder.
System 2 looks closer and sees that the hitchhiker is a firefighter and that he is trying to warn us that there is a massive tree across the road just ahead.
We need System 1 to make snap judgments, but we also need System 2 to check his work.
When reading or watching a whodunit, we know to disregard the first obvious clue, especially if it points to the butler as the culprit.
We need a similar habit in the physical world.
We want to call in System 2 to look past the obvious facts and double-check the work of System 1.
That aggressive driver who cut us off may simply be a jerk, but it is possible that he just found out his wife and child were in a terrible crash and are in serious condition at the hospital.
Just because something is obvious doesn’t make it true.
Oh, the answer to our math problem is five minutes.
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